The website of Canada’s Globe and Mail published on September 16 the title “The Coming of the Third La Niña Winter: Possible Impact on Commodities” by meteorologist Jim Romer. The content is excerpted as follows:
Global warming caused by climate change and the prolonged La Niña phenomenon have combined to trigger global weather disasters such as floods in Pakistan and droughts in Europe, reducing corn and soybean yields in the Western Corn Belt of North America.
Some scientists and commodity analysts have talked a lot about La Niña's soon-to-turn El Niño, and there's been a lot of confusion. However, I've been adamant for months that La Niña won't abate until late winter (or spring 2023). Even if El Niño occurs, it will not have an impact on commodities for at least 8 to 12 months.
La Niña has occurred three times in three consecutive winters (1956, 1975 and 2000). So, what kind of global impact has the commodity experienced during these three winters (summer in South America)?
1. On two of the three occasions, Argentina and/or Brazil had production problems with soybeans and corn.
2. On two of the three occasions, there was a cold winter in the United States and/or Europe.
3. Brazilian coffee is seeing generally improved weather.
4. Heavy rains this autumn could cause more damage to Pakistan's cotton crop.
5. Wetter weather for Australian grains: Production of wheat and other crops has remained largely above normal, but flooding may be a problem in some places.
6. Cocoa, West Africa, has generally enjoyed good weather.
With record hot summers in most parts of the world, a study I am preparing for clients analyzes the La Niña years during these winters (1956-1957, 1975-1976, 2000-2001) Which of the following has experienced similar spring and summer weather events. In other words, not all La Niña events are the same, and global warming could offset a cold winter and a rise in natural gas.
For example, my Internal Climate Prediction Project shows that Europe's record hot summers usually herald a warm December in Europe.